A potential tropical disturbance headed towards the Southeastern United States is likely to bring heavy rains to the state over the Fourth of July weekend, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC said in its latest update that a frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the U.S. Gulf Coast this week.
An area of low pressure could then develop and potentially bring a subtropical or tropical disturbance, the NHC said. As of Thursday morning, the chances of development in the next seven days had increased to 60%, and the chances of development within the next 48 hours increased to 20%. The NHC has highlighted a region off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida for a medium chance of tropical development over at least the next week. Warm ocean water could help as temperatures are already near the mid-80s. There is also very low wind shear and the low presence of Saharan Dust, which tends to dry out the air.
Regardless of whether a tropical system forms or not, heavy rainfall is likely and will impact areas across Central Florida at all times of the day on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. On Thursday, most areas will experience a 50% chance of rain. Rain chances increase across western parts of the peninsula. With plenty of tropical moisture in place, a lot of rain will fall over a short period of time.
