VIDEO: Wildfire simulation programs are emerging as essential tools for understanding and forecasting fire behavior. The rapidly advancing technology is especially critical in wildlandโurban interface communities of the Sierra. According to Cal Fire AmadorโEl Dorado Unit Battalion Chief Bret Swearengin, many residents in these areas have only one road in and out of their neighborhoods; time is crucial when it comes to evacuations and containing wildfires.
Swearengin recently walked KCRA 3 through a wildfire simulation demonstration, explaining how these programs help firefighters quickly make life-saving decisions. โYou’re showing up. You got eight acres. What are you thinking right now? That’s life, property or environment,โ said Swearingen, โSo our number one priority is evacuations and getting people out. Life before property.โ
For the demonstration, he plugged three main factors into the programโweather, fuel type, and topography. He set the wind speed to 60 miles per hour. โVery bad day to have a fire in that area,” Swearengin noted. The fuel included shrubs, grasses, and fallen needlesโmaterials he described as โreally receptive for embers.โ โThat can really impact control efforts in the fire,โ Swearing explained.
The program took the variables and, through an algorithm, simulated a wildfire spreading toward the mountains. This output helps crews decide which neighborhoods to evacuate first and what tactical steps to take next. โWhere we’re going to set up our incident command post,โ CAL FIRE Amador-El Dorado Unit Assistant Chief Brian Newman added, โWhere are we going to be able to organize and direct resources?โ
Those resources range from fire engines, water tenders and aircraft to construction equipment like bulldozers used to build fuel breaks that slow or stop the fireโs progression. Another challenge the program helps solve is agency coordination. โJust this fire alone, you would have Lake Valley Fire District, South Lake Tahoe Fire Rescue, Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit or the U.S. Forest Service and CAL FIRE would all have a piece of this fire,โ Swearingin explained.
Newman remembered when he would use a sandbox to model a fireโs spread. He explained that this process took a lot of math and time that firefighters often didnโt have, especially during an actively burning fire. Now Newman and Swearingen instantly generate simulations. These programs are a tool they regularly use for current and future burnsโfrom real-time evacuations, leadership and teamwork exercises, to planning their next fuels management projects. โEvacuation orders are always going to be different. Different areas,โ Swearingen said. โFire is going to burn differently.โ
Looking into the future, Newman and Swearengin anticipate artificial intelligence and real-time satellite imagery to be integratedโenhancements that could increase simulation accuracy in the next few years.
